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Forum:2014 Pacific typhoon season
Future Start Same with ATL and EPac. Betting pools for the WPac and NIO will be made once 2013 is over. Ryan1000 01:08, October 28, 2013 (UTC) :Here are my predictions for the Western Pacific (using JMA categories): 60 total depressions, 33 total tropical storms, 27 total severe tropical storms, 21 total typhoons (11 strong, 6''' intense, and '''4 violent), and an ACE of 450 (give or take 25). AndrewTalk To Me 01:51, January 3, 2014 (UTC) :60 depressions? Are you trying to predict the most active season in world history or something?! I don't think we will get even close to that number of depressions. Heck, we might not even reach 40. Anyway, time for my predictions, which are meant to be realistic as I can: 35 total depressions, 28 total tropical storms, 23 total severe tropical storms, 16 total typhoons (10 strong, 5''' intense, and '''2 violent). Steven09876 05:34, January 4, 2014 (UTC) August Welcome to August in the WPAC! With the MJO in full swing here, I definitely think we are looking at an active month here. 9''' depressions, '''7 storms, 5''' severe tropical storms, '''4 typhoons, and an ACE of 90 units is what I would expect from here. AndrewTalk To Me 02:25, August 1, 2014 (UTC) 07E.GENEVIEVE See here. AndrewTalk To Me 07:16, August 8, 2014 (UTC) 96W.INVEST 96W.INVEST NRL reported an invest with winds of 15 knots (15 mph) and a pressure of 1010 mbar (hPa). I don't know much else about this system. AndrewTalk To Me 00:06, August 14, 2014 (UTC) 99W.INVEST 99W.INVEST Looks like we've lost interest in the WPac during the epicness of the EPac and Cristobal in the Atlantic. We've missed a few invests, but none of them did much, and this one isn't expected to do much either. Having no storms worldwide on this day is unusual, for being one of the most active days of the year worldwide. It's also the ninth anniversary of Katrina, god bless the victims of that storm. Ryan1000 20:58, August 29, 2014 (UTC) : And dead...Ryan1000 23:33, August 30, 2014 (UTC) : I read in WU from a post that a repectful blogger did that this have been the first August in satelite era that there haven't been any named storms in the Wpac to form. Without counting Genevieve.Allanjeffs 00:35, August 31, 2014 (UTC) ::: And Halong, which lasted through the first 11 days of the month and eventually hit Japan. Anyways, the WPac's quiet streak is kinda ending now, with two TD's, Karding (PAGASA name) nearing Hainan Island and another one south of Japan, moving out to sea. No JMA named storms yet though...*yawn*''Ryan1000'' 19:00, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::: The WPac is getting way too inactive lately. I hope one of those JMA TD's become named. If this inactivity continues we might have a WPac season that would reveal 2010!--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:24, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::::: You mean rival, but I doubt that will happen. We've got 13 storms, 6 typhoons, and 4 major typhoons (counting Genny) thus far, with the rest of September-November left to have more storms. We'd have to have no storms the rest of the year to beat 2010's record, at least 1 more typhoon, and no more majors. It's fair to say this year will probably be less active than normal, but not to the point of setting record lows in activity. WPac peaks in October and early November, and ramps up in September. Ryan1000 20:45, September 6, 2014 (UTC) 14W.NONAME JMA Tropical Depression (Karding) Headed towards Hainan Island. Might not become named by JMA though. Ryan1000 19:00, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :Currently located at 16.5N 116.9E, Invest 92W has had flaring deep convection over a consolidating LLCC, as noted on satellite imagery. Fragmented convective banding is wrapping into the center per a 0140Z METOP-B microwave image. With low to moderate VWS of five to ten knots and good equatorial outflow, 92W should develop into a TD at most. A TCFA has also been issued by the JTWC, estimating winds of 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph, 25 to 40 km/h) (1-minute) and a pressure of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). On the JMA side, they report winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute), with a pressure of 1004 mbar (hPa; 29.65 inHg), with brief intensification to a 35 knot (40 mph, 65 km/h) (10-minute)/998 mbar (hPa; 29.47 inHg) before striking Hainan. I'd rather have this depression to be named Kalmaegi, simply because that name is not as lucky intensitywise as Fengshen, the next allocated name, is. Also, in case you're wondering, Kanor, what should have been the PAGASA name for this system, it was removed due to association with Meng Kanor, notorious for some sort of scandal. AndrewTalk To Me 20:58, September 6, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Depression 14W Here, but might not become named before it hits Hainan. Ryan1000 11:54, September 7, 2014 (UTC) 13W.FENGSHEN JMA Tropical Depression Currently south of Japan, should die soon though. Ryan1000 19:00, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :Actually, I would beg to differ. MSI reveals a broadly defined LLCC is wrapping into the center of Invest 91W''s circulation. Poleward outflow is also very good due to an STR over the Korean Peninsula. Due to low VWS and favorable SST's, the JTWC has issued a TCFA in anticipation for 91W's development into a TC. Winds are estimated to be at 15 to 20 knots (15 to 25 mph, 25 to 40 km/h) (1-minute sustained), with a pressure estimate of 1003 mbar (hPa; 29.62 inHg). Unfortunately, the JMA, who reports winds of 30 knots (35 mph, 55 km/h) (10-minute sustained) and a pressure of 1000 mbar (hPa; 29.53 inHg), forecasts development into a weak, 40 knot (45 mph, 75 km/h) (10-minute)/994 mbar (hPa; 29.35 inHg) tropical storm. The next name on the list, ''Fengshen, is one of my favorite WPAC names because it is the name of the Chinese god of wind. If this TD takes that name, it will ruin Fengshen's reputation - the 2002 incarnation was a wicked Category 5 and the 2008 incarnation was a brutal Category 3. I'd rather have this become a depression or Typhoon Fengshen, please not in the middle! AndrewTalk To Me 20:48, September 6, 2014 (UTC) :::If it does become Fengshen, it shouldn't last for more than a day or two as it heads northeast, paralleling southern Japan then heading out to sea. Ryan1000 21:13, September 6, 2014 (UTC) ::::I also hope it doesn't become Fengshen. To me that name sounds like the name of a powerful beast (in other words, a super typhoon). This invest should only peak as a moderate TS at most, but I hope it won't be named.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 02:12, September 7, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fengshen Sorry everyone, but Fengshen is here. It might actually not be all that weak, though; the JMA predicts a peak of 60 kts (10-min)/975 mbar, just under typhoon strength, so we could see a typhoon from this after all, if a brief one. Currently it's at 35 kts (10-min)/996 mbar. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 04:48, September 7, 2014 (UTC) : It looks like it's skirting Japan but they won't feel any impacts probably. Let's hope it becomes a typhoon! :) --Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 20:36, September 7, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Fengshen 55 kts (1-min and 10-min)/980 mbar, and officially forecast to peak as a typhoon now (65 kts (10-min)/970 mbar). --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 11:21, September 8, 2014 (UTC) : Looks like Fengshen's going to become a typhoon. Hip hip horray! Luckily it won't be weak, simply because I think of the name as something powerful.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:29, September 9, 2014 (UTC) Post-Tropical Cyclone Fengshen The forecast for typhoon strength sadly never materialized :( --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 03:23, September 11, 2014 (UTC) :The Chinese god of wind has become the god of failure... >:( AndrewTalk To Me 21:43, September 13, 2014 (UTC) 15W.KALMAEGI Tropical Depression 15W New one, forecast to be a typhoon as it passes over the northern Philippines and eventually mainland China. Ryan1000 20:55, September 11, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Kalmaegi (Luis) Now named Luis by PAGASA, it's still forecast to be a cat 1 in the northern Philippines and a 2 when it hits southern China. Ryan1000 10:38, September 12, 2014 (UTC) : Hopefully they're prepared for this upcoming storm. It could possibly be something bad. Anyway, it's currently 50 kts (60 mph)/985 mbars and forecast to reach 70 kts (80 mph)/965 mbars according to the JMA by the time it reaches China. Of course, the winds are ten-minute sustained.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 00:57, September 13, 2014 (UTC) Typhoon Kalmaegi Sorry, guys, I've been real busy lately. Anyway, Kalmaegi is wasting no time to intensify. Winds are currently at 65 knots (75 mph, 120 km/h) (1 and 10-minute) per both the JMA and JTWC based on T4.0 Dvorak estimates, with a pressure of 975 mbar (hPa; 28.79 inHg) per the JMA and gusts of 80 knots (90 mph, 145 km/h) per the JTWC. An eye feature is developing in Kalmaegi, and due to warm SST's and favorable equatorial outflow, intensification is forecast to 85 knots (100 mph) (1-minute)/105 knot (120 mph) gusts per the JTWC before slamming into Luzon. The STR will keep the typhoon moving generally westwards for the rest of the forecast period, meaning China and southern Vietnam are next. Preparations are already underway in the Philippines; medical aid is being set up and PAGASA has warned citizens of conditions such as landslides. AndrewTalk To Me 21:42, September 13, 2014 (UTC) : Kalmaegi is hitting the northern Philipines as a typhoon right now, though due to the scarce population of the area it shouldn't be too severe. I'm more worried about what it'll do to southern China in the next few days. Forecast peak is still a cat 2 atm. Ryan1000 16:04, September 14, 2014 (UTC) :: It's about entering the South China sea right now, and southern China/northern Vietnam is next in its forecast cone. They might feel quite a bit of upcoming impacts from this thing. I doubt it was too bad for the Philippines.--Steve820 |Chat With Me • • 21:40, September 14, 2014 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Kamaegi (2nd time) Weakening as it moves inland over southern China/Vietnam. Ryan1000 21:28, September 16, 2014 (UTC) 16W.FUNG-WONG JMA Tropical Depression Currently east of Luzon. Probably gonna follow the same route as Kalmaegi. Ryan1000 21:49, September 16, 2014 (UTC) Tropical Storm Fung-Wong (Mario) Or not...now forecast to turn northeast and hit Japan as a typhoon, peaking as a cat 2 before weakening to a 1. Guess I shouldn't be so reliant on the initial forecasts from storms, as they could easily change very quickly. Ryan1000 21:17, September 17, 2014 (UTC) :The names submitted by Hong Kong are one of the best /s --Isaac829 02:59, September 18, 2014 (UTC) Retirements at a glance With four storms at hand, I feel like we can start this section. #Lingling - 15% - I don't know what to say here. Seventy people is a hefty fatality number from all that flooding in the Philippines, but worse has struck and evicted them. #*''Agaton - 25% - Usually, it takes 300 fatalities to bust out a PAGASA name, but Agaton was a very nasty early season surprise for them.'' #Kajiki - 5% - Seven fatalities and an early season Philippine landfall is probably all Kajiki will be remembered for, and Lingling was worse. #*Basyang - 10% - I feel Agaton was worse, although Basyang did kill seven and produce minor impacts. #Faxai - 0% - Became a breathtaking March typhoon, but caused no land impacts, so no. #04W - 0% - Not named by the JMA. #*Caloy - 1% - Even Basyang was worse! #Peipah - 0.1% - This could have been a much different story for the Philippines. Luckily, Peipah was kept in check. #*Domeng - 0.1% - Caloy was worse than you! #Mitag - 0.5% - Mitag zipped by a number of areas, but it had very little impact whatsoever outside of the Philippines. #*Ester - 2% - Some slight flooding was reported in the Philippines, but no damages or fatalites have been reported. #Hagibis - 8% - Well, the $131 million (2014 USD) was more than I expected. But even with 11 casualties, I do not think Hagibis will get retired. #Neoguri - 10% - With seven fatalities and slight to moderate damage across Okinawa and Japan, I do not expect Neoguri's demise yet. #*Florita - 0% - To my knowledge, Florita completely missed the Philippines. #'Rammasun - 60% - Yikes, the Thai god of thunder sure did leave his mark. Ninety percent of Metro Manila was left without power, and almost a hundred fatalities were reported in the Philippines. If that does not seal the deal, 51,000 homes were destroyed by Rammasun in Hainan, and Haikou, widespread tree, flooding, structural, and vehicle damage was reported. This was the most severe impacts they have witnessed from a typhoon in over four centuries. Vietnam also saw some nasty effects from Rammasun. With 187 fatalities and $6.51 billion (2014 USD) in losses, the typhoon is the sixth costliest WPAC system on record. I really hope Rammasun is kicked off the list, but deadlier storms have been snubbed in the past.' #*''Glenda - 100% - Recent damage estimates from Glenda guarantee its retirement.'' #Matmo - 20% - Matmo caused some severe agricultural damage in Taiwan and killed three across the nation and China. In addition, there was the nasty TransAsia airline crash which killed 48. Although this was less devastating than what I thought, 62 deaths and $565 million (2014 USD) is nothing we should be laughing at, and there is definitely a good chance here. #*Henry - 1% - As far as I recall, nothing yet has been reported in the Philippines from Henry. #'Halong - 55% - Again, like Neoguri, I expected far worse from Halong. But that's not to say it was nothing. Halong did affect a number of people in the Philippines, and Japan got nailed too. Mie Perfecture witnessed a record-breaking rainfall rate and emergency warning, and strong gusts whipped the entire region. Twelve fatalities is rather low for retirement, but $1.1 billion (2014 USD) in losses puts Halong as the tenth-costliest Japanese typhoon on record. Although far costlier storms evicted retirement from Japan, we have no laughing matter here.' #*Jose - 5% - Actually, Jose was a little catastrophic for the Philippines. Thousands of people were affected by the monsoon rains, which killed two. Damages in the Philippines are estimated to be at P1.624 million. That's definitely not enough for retirement, but just something worth noting. #Nakri - 7% - Fatalities in the Koreas were a little more deadly than I expected, and 16 deaths is nothing to laugh at. However, damages in relation to Nakri were only at $116,000 (2014 USD). That number is a lot less than I feared, and while Nakri has that small chance, I doubt it now. #*Inday - 0% - Inday completely missed the region. #JMA Tropical Depression - 0% #*Karding - 1% - Karding did affect the Philippines, but I have heard no reports of devastation just yet. #Fengshen - 0.5% - Aside from some potential effects in Japan, the Chinese god of wind busted this year. #Kalmaegi - TBA - Still Active #*Luis - TBA - Still Active Post yours, too! AndrewTalk To Me 13:56, April 5, 2014 (UTC) ---- Steven's retirement predictions: JMA names *Lingling: 20% - 70 deaths but still doesn't seem bad enough for a retirement. *Kajiki: 5% - Slight impacts for the Philippines, but Lingling was worse. *Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon, but still no land impacts. *Peipah: 1% - Umm, no. *Tapah: 0% - No land was harmed in the making of Tapah. *Mitag: 0.5% - Very little impact. *Hagibis: 5% - $131 million in China and 11 deaths, but it most likely won't be retired. *Neoguri: 10% - Could've been a different story for Japan but luckily it weakened a lot before reaching Japan. There were much worse storms than Neoguri in the country, so I don't expect a retirement out of this guy. *'Rammasun: 70% - With all the damages it caused in Philippines and Hainan a retirement is very likely out of him.' *''Matmo: 30% - Slight chance due to some destruction in Taiwan and China. It also caused a very deadly TransAsia plane crash that caused 48 deaths.'' *''Halong: 25% - Damage in Japan and the Philippines may be enough to give it a slight shot at retirement but I doubt that will happen.'' *Nakri: 5% - 11 deaths and moderate damage throughout its path, but I doubt it would be retired. *Fengshen: 0% - Spinning fish out at sea won't earn a retirement. *Kalmaegi: ? - Still active but threatening Philippines and China PAGASA names *''Agaton: 30% - What a nasty early season surprise, might be retired but at the same time I think not.'' *Basyang: 10% - 7 deaths, however, Agaton was worse and Basyang barely has a chance. *Caloy: 1% - Seriously? Even Basyang was worse than you. *Domeng: 0.01% - Lol, this epic fail couldn't even compete with Caloy! :O It still affected land though, so I tacked a "0.01%" on Domeng. *Ester: 1% - Some flooding in the Philippines but it's not getting the boot. *Florita: 0% - Missed the Philippines *''Glenda: 100% - With all the damages it caused, it will certainly be retired. PHP 1 billion in damage is enough to give it the boot.'' *Henry: 0% - Missed the Philippines *Inday: 0% - Missed the Philippines *Jose: 3% - Very slight damage in the Philippines but it's not going. *Karding: 0% - Meh. *Luis: ? - Still active Steve820 20:42, April 5, 2014 (UTC) (Last updated: 00:59, September 13, 2014 (UTC)) ---- Ryan Grand's great speech... JMA names: *Lingling - 38% - 70 deaths isn't anything to laugh at, but enough for retirement? Probably not, unfortunately. *Kajiki - 3% - Caused some impacts, but it's nothing retirement-worthy. *Faxai - 0% - Became a typhoon, that's about it. *Peipah - 1% - Minor flooding in the Marshall Islands, that's all there is to say. *Tapah - 0% - No notable impact. *Mitang - 0% - Didn't know this one existed lol. *Hagbis - 15% - 131 million in damage and 11 deaths isn't a fail, but it's not enough to get the boot either. *Neoguri - 11% - Killed 7 people and caused some damage here and there, but Japan has seen worse and I don't expect it to be retired. *Rammasun - 80% - Six billion dollars in damage and over 100 deaths are very good numbers to retire a name, making Rammasun one of the top 10 costliest typhoons in history, but there have been bigger numbers from some other snubs in the WPac before, like Songda '04 (9 billion in damage) and Fengshen '08 (over 1000 deaths). Still, it was a widespread, destructive storm, and it has a fairly good shot at retirement. *Matmo - 45% - Current damage estimates are 567 million and it killed over 60 people in Taiwan and China, but, while that's bad, it's not like they haven't seen that before. *Halong - 5% - Although I was a little skeptical of Halong's damage at first, I certainly didn't expect the 1 billion damage estimate to be knocked down to a measly 3 million after detailed reanalysis. It looks like Halong pulled an Ophelia, and I doubt it's going now. *Nakri - 6% - 16 deaths and moderate damage reported. While that's not nothing, it isn't enough to retire it either. *Fengshen - 0% - Ooh, fishie! *Kalmaegi - 67% - Actually, it was pretty destructive. 950 million dollars in damage make it fairly costly for a storm of its low intensity. Tack 15 deaths on top of that and you have a decent retirement canidate. While Kalmaegi wasn't as bad as Rammasun earlier this year, it was still rather destructive, and it has a decent chance at retirement. PAGASA names: *Agaton - 35% - A bit higher than it's JMA name, but even so, I doubt it will go. *Basyang - 8% - Killed a few people and caused some damage, but it was far less devastating than Agaton, and many other storms that have hit the islands in the past. *Caloy - 0.5% - Is this a joke? *Domeng - 0% - Didn't cause severe effects to the Philipines. *Ester - 0% - Missed them completely. *Florita - 0% - Not even close. *Glenda - 100% - PAGASA storm names are retired if they cause at least 1 billion PHP in damage, and Glenda caused roughly 10 billion PHP damage (the 9th costliest typhoon in the nation's history), so yeah, goodbye. *Henry - 0% - Didn't touch the Philipines. *Inday - 0% - Nope. *Jose - 2% - Not a full miss, but no. *Karding - 0% - *yawns* *Luis - 5% - Little impact reported. That sums it up. Ryan1000 23:33, April 5, 2014 (UTC) 's retirements *Lingling - 15% *Kajiki - 0.05% *Faxai - 0% - Good job Faxai. *Peipah - 8% - for its name sounds like Peppa(which was called Peppa Pig) *Tapah - 0.5% - Tapah reminds me of a Japanese Man PAGASA *Agaton - 25% *Basyang - 9% *Caloy - 0.5% - Funny name *Domemeng - 4% - lower than JMA name TO BE CONTINUED 23:17, May 1, 2014 (UTC) MY PREDICTIONS: : JMA: *Lingling - 30% - significant damage to the Philippines, but not enough. *Kajiki - 10% - Lingling was worse. *Faxai - 5% - A March typhoon. Just a March typhoon. No impact(s) at land. *Peipah - 2% - Eh? *Tapah - 0% - Wait, there's a storm named Tapah? *Mitag - 3% - Um... not really. *Hagibis - 20% - Oh, 11 deaths and $131 million worth of damage. China has seen worse storms. *Neoguri - 23% - Japan has seen worse than this, but wow, it was a big threat to Japan *''Rammasun - 85% - Philippines consider this comparable to Xangsane, but Xangsane was worse though. But 40 deaths is quite big. And it hasn't dissipated yet. Forget what I have said before, $4.55 billion worth of damages and 170 total deaths in China, Vietnam and the Philippines is enough to retire Rammasun.'' : PAGASA: *Agaton - 35% - What an early surprise to the Philippines. 70 deaths, but that's it. *Basyang - 25% - Agaton was worse. *Caloy - 0% - Nah. *Domeng - 0% - Same with Caloy. *Ester - 2% - Quite affected the Philippines, but no significant damage. *Florita - 3% - Enhanced the southwest monsoon, but other than that, nothing else. *'Glenda - 100% - OUT. PHP 1 billion worth of damages is enough.' * : (TO BE CONTINUED) - Anonymous 2.0 (talk) 15:15, July 17, 2014 (UTC) Time to throw my hat into the ring: ;JMA : *Lingling: 29% - 70 fatalities is no laughing matter, but deadlier Philippine storms have been snubbed before. *Kajiki: 7% - Wasn't bad enough. *Faxai: 0% - Became a typhoon... and that's it. *Peipah: 0% - Nah. *Tapah: 0% - Glub glub glub. *Mitag: Who cares? *Hagibis: 13% - Death toll and damage bill are respectable, but not enough. *Neoguri: 14% - ^ *'Rammasun:' 88% - Severe, widespread damage across several countries. $6.51 billion in damage and a grand total of 187 deaths significantly outshines the impact from last year's Utor, which was retired. *Matmo: 33% - Could've been a lot worse. ;PAGASA : *'Glenda:' 100% - Damage bill is 1080% of the criteria, and rising. *All others: 0% - Did not meet the criteria of 1 billion PHP damage and/or 300 fatalities. --'Dylan' (Hurricane 99) 00:05, July 26, 2014 (UTC)